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工作报告 · AI 生产力悖论

From Generation Surplus to Epistemic Scarcity

从生成过剩到认知稀缺

The verification bottleneck, the completeness tax, and human compression in the age of agents

Agent 时代的验收瓶颈、完备性税与人类压缩

Deli Chen September 14, 2026 10 min read
陈德里 2026 年 9 月 14 日 约 10 分钟

The biggest problem with AI may not be that it can't do things — it's that it does too much and says too much.

As the cost of generation approaches zero, the truly scarce resources become judgment, verification, understanding, and compression.

Disclaimer: This is a personal essay based on my own recent experience working with agents and on the public discussion in the mathematics community. All opinions are my own and do not represent any organization.

Executive SummaryGeneration is cheap. Verification, understanding, and judgment are not.

Generative AI and agents are pushing the output bandwidth of knowledge work to a level that was hard to imagine only recently. Code, analyses, reports, research leads, proposals, and documents can now be produced cheaply, in parallel, and continuously. Yet organizations do not automatically gain a proportional lift in productivity, because the human bandwidth for review, understanding, judgment, and communication has not expanded at the same pace.

This creates two interlocking problems. The first is the verification bottleneck: machines generate faster than humans can verify, and the review queue keeps growing. The second is the completeness tax: AI is naturally good at producing output that is structurally complete, comprehensive in coverage, and polished in language — but all that extra material raises the cost of reading, filtering, verifying, and, worse, of misplaced confidence. Prettier documents do not mean clearer thinking.

On September 11, 2026, Terence Tao and 24 other Fields Medalists published A Severe Misalignment of AI in Mathematics. They argue that solving famous problems is only a tool and a proxy for the real goal — conceptual understanding and insight. If AI mass-produces conclusions at ever-increasing speed without the accompanying organization, extraction of methods, attribution, and transmission to human mathematicians, the tool can end up eroding the goal it was meant to serve. [1][2] The structure is the same in agent work: the number of tasks completed is a proxy for useful work, not the goal itself.

This report argues that the core scarcity of the agent era is shifting from generation to verification, understanding, judgment, and compression. The most valuable human work is no longer filling things in but actively cutting things out; not restating what the model can say, but stating clearly what I believe, why, where I'm uncertain, and what to do next.

Four core judgments

01
Generation is no longer scarce
AI can quickly produce large volumes of work that looks finished. Output itself is no longer a reliable signal of value.
02
Verification is the bottleneck
If every AI output still depends on a human reading and confirming it item by item, system throughput is ultimately bounded by the human, not the agent.
03
Completeness is a burden
More complete does not mean more useful. Cheap expansion creates information inflation, misunderstanding, and organizational cognitive debt.
04
Human value shifts to compression
High-value work is selecting, cutting, ranking, owning the judgment, and compressing complexity into conclusions that are actionable and accountable.

01 · The Paradigm ShiftFrom too little output to too much

The default premise of traditional knowledge work is that producing one high-quality result is expensive. Writing a twenty-page report, landing a complex PR, or completing a thorough survey takes significant human time, so the question "is this worth producing?" acts as a natural filter.

Agents change this cost structure. The cost of generation keeps falling while parallelism keeps rising. One person can delegate multiple agents at once to generate code, analyses, research, proposals, and documents. So the first thing an organization gets is not "the knowledge shortage is gone" but "a flood of candidate outputs."

The key asymmetry: production costs are falling fast, but consumption costs are not. A model can generate a long report in minutes, but understanding it, checking it, and forming a judgment still require real human attention.

Generation Throughput ≫ Human Verification / Comprehension Throughput

This means the real throughput of an agent system should not be measured by how many tasks it completed, but by how many of those results can be trusted, understood, and turned into action at an acceptable human cost. A metric closer to real productivity is:

Human Verification Cost per Successful Task

If an agent raises the task success rate from 90% to 95% but pushes the human review time per result from 30 seconds to 20 minutes, organizational productivity may actually go down.

02 · The Verification BottleneckWhat's missing is often not an agent, but a verifier

As agents grow more capable at execution, humans shift from "the person who does the work" to "the person who accepts it, decides, and is accountable." This role change moves the organization's main bottleneck to the verification layer.

Code is the most visible case: an agent can submit dozens of PRs overnight, but the team cannot review them all the next morning. In research, an agent can generate hundreds of leads, but experts have no time to check each one. In management, AI can produce a full analysis for every question, but what the decision-maker actually needs may be one judgment, two supporting facts, and one risk.

So a reliable agent system must upgrade from "outputting answers" to "outputting verifiable evidence." A good deliverable is not the sentence "task complete." It is a structured account of: what changed, which automated tests passed, where the key differences are, which parts remain uncertain, and which matters must be decided by a human.

A better verification stack

  1. Agent produces the result generate
  2. Verifier agent cross-checks cross-check
  3. Automated tests / constraints / baseline diffs automate
  4. Risk tiering and evidence compression compress
  5. Humans handle only high-risk, high-uncertainty, high-value items human

The most important design principle here is to move humans from "checking every output" to "checking invariants, evidence, and anomalies." Verification must be made as programmatic as possible — otherwise, the stronger the agents get, the longer the human backlog grows.

03 · A Warning from MathematicsDon't mistake the proxy for the goal

On September 11, 2026, Terence Tao and 24 other Fields Medalists published a joint declaration, A Severe Misalignment of AI in Mathematics. The statement acknowledges that the mathematical capabilities of large models have jumped dramatically in recent months, but argues that the push by AI companies to "solve famous problems" as a capability showcase and benchmark is severely misaligned with what the mathematical community actually pursues. [1]

Famous problems, the statement stresses, have long functioned as landmarks on the map of mathematics: solving them matters because it typically brings new insights, methods, and concepts, which then go through discussion, simplification, writing, teaching, and transmission across generations before they enter the community's body of knowledge. [1][2]

They offer a judgment that speaks to all knowledge work: solving problems is a tool and a proxy for conceptual understanding and insight. Forget that, and AI mass-producing true/false verdicts at ever greater speed may damage the very soil in which new ideas grow. [1][2]

Structural isomorphism: mathematics and agent work

LayerMathematical researchAgent work
Proxy metricSolving famous problemsCompleting tasks / producing deliverables
Real goalUnderstanding, methods, and new questionsUsable, trustworthy work that supports decisions
Where AI excelsRapidly generating proofs and conclusionsRapidly generating code, reports, proposals, analyses
New bottleneckVerification, organization, attribution, teachingAcceptance, understanding, compression, accountability

This reveals a more general problem: when AI can directly produce the "final artifacts" that used to require years of training, it is easy to assume that the intermediate processes — training, understanding, discussion, forming judgment — no longer matter. But those processes are often exactly where real capability accumulates.

04 · The AI Completeness TaxWhy polished reports create cognitive debt

An increasingly common scene at work: everyone uses AI to write reports. The reports are structurally complete, professionally worded, nicely formatted, and appear to "cover everything" — yet hardly anyone actually wants to read them. More dangerously, the authors themselves may overestimate how well they understand the subject, simply because the document looks finished enough.

Call this the AI Completeness Tax: because models tend to fill in every part that might be useful — background, definitions, risks, cases, recommendations, summaries — the organization has to pay for all that extra material in reading, filtering, verification, and attention.

AI's completeness is not malicious verbosity; it is a natural consequence of the objective. When you don't know what the reader really needs, "cover more" is usually safer than "cut boldly." But in human communication, value comes precisely from the trade-offs.

Four components of the completeness tax

Reading cost
Recipients must process large amounts of low-marginal-value text; attention gets diluted.
Filtering cost
The judgments that actually matter are buried inside "comprehensive coverage" and need to be compressed a second time.
Verification cost
The more content, the more facts, assumptions, and reasoning chains there are to check.
False-confidence cost
A complete, polished document creates the illusion of "I've already thought this through."
Document Clarity ≠ Mental Clarity
More Tokens ≠ More Information

The essence of information inflation is that AI has slashed the marginal cost of producing a page of text, while the marginal cost of understanding one has not fallen. In the past, a long document at least implied that its author had invested considerable effort in selecting and organizing; today, length no longer carries that signal. Text inflates, and high-density judgment becomes scarcer.

05 · Epistemic CompressionThe core of future human work is cutting, not filling

If AI is good at expanding, humans should be good at contracting. The value of high-quality knowledge work will increasingly show up as lossy compression: deliberately discarding low-value information and keeping only what would change a judgment, a decision, or an action.

This "compression" is not traditional summarization. A summary just turns ten pages into two. Epistemic compression asks the author to take on epistemic responsibility: out of all the evidence, what do I actually believe? What matters most? What is still uncertain? Which judgments am I willing to act on?

So the most expensive sentence of the AI era may not be a complete report but: "Only the second question matters." Behind that sentence lie selection, exclusion, ranking, and responsibility.

A competent human compression output answers at least four things:

Conclusion
What I think should be done / what happened.
Evidence
The two or three key facts that support this judgment.
Uncertainty
Where it could be wrong, and what information would change the conclusion.
Action
Who does what next, and what requires a human decision.
AI's jobWhat can be said?
Human's jobWhat do I believe, and what should we do?

06 · Organizational MechanismsFrom "rewarding output" to "controlling cognitive entropy"

If we keep pre-AI management habits — measuring work by document count, tasks completed, PR count, or survey coverage — agents will push organizations into a state of high output and low understanding. New organizational mechanisms should actively limit the growth of information entropy.

  1. Default to short, not to completeInternal communication should favor one-pagers, decision memos, or diff reports. Detailed material is expanded on demand, not pushed to everyone by default.
  2. Evidence before proseAgent deliverables lead with evidence — test results, diffs, data sources, confidence levels, anomalies — and only then the explanatory text.
  3. Review by exceptionHumans focus on failures, conflicts, anomalies, and high-risk items rather than confirming every normal result one by one.
  4. Force a distinction between "model opinion" and "my judgment"Reports must state clearly which parts are AI-generated candidate analysis and which are conclusions the author has filtered and is willing to stand behind.
  5. Price the cost of readingGenerating 20 pages is nearly free, but asking 10 people to each spend 20 minutes on it costs the organization 200 minutes. Account for consumption cost before sending a long document.
  6. Treat compression as a senior skillThe truly senior employee is not the one who gets AI to write more, but the one who compresses a complex system into a small number of correct, actionable, transferable judgments.

07 · Redefining AI ProductivityDon't just count how much was done

The agent era needs new productivity metrics. Traditional metrics are closer to volume; new ones must account for human attention, trustworthiness, and the cost of cognitive integration. A simple framework:

Net Productivity
= Useful Work Created
− Verification Cost
− Reading / Filtering Cost
− Rework Cost
− False-understanding Cost

Metrics worth watching:

08 · ConclusionAI makes execution cheap — and judgment expensive

The bottleneck of knowledge work used to be "who can actually build the thing." Agents are rapidly dissolving that bottleneck. The harder questions that follow are: who can confirm it is right, who can understand why it is right, who can judge what matters, and who is willing to be accountable for the final conclusion.

This is the deepest point of agreement between the Fields Medalists' declaration and real-world agent work: when machines can directly produce the final artifacts that used to count as "proof of capability," we must re-identify the goals that are truly worth protecting. In mathematics, it is not "more theorems" per se, but understanding, ideas, and transmission. In organizations, it is not "more documents and tasks" per se, but trustworthy judgment, effective communication, and correct action.

The core capability stack of the agent era can therefore be summarized as:

Judgment → Verification → Compression
AI expands the space of possibilities. Humans converge on reality.

A truly mature way of working with AI is not giving everyone more output, but letting the organization reach clearer, more reliable, more actionable judgments with less cognitive burden.

The biggest problem with AI may not be that it talks nonsense, but that it talks too well; not too little information, but too much.

The core of high-quality human work in the future is not to keep filling in, but to compress the machine's completeness into judgments we truly understand, are willing to communicate, and can be accountable for.

AppendixA recommended "one-page human work" template

Once AI has provided abundant background material, the final human output for colleagues, managers, or decision-makers can be forced into this structure:

Conclusion
State your judgment in one sentence.
Evidence
At most 3 facts or pieces of evidence that genuinely change the conclusion.
Uncertainty
At most 2 factors most likely to overturn the judgment.
Action
The clear next step; who needs to decide what.
Attachments
The long AI report, raw data, and full analysis — available on demand, not occupying the main communication bandwidth.

Prefer the original?

Download the report (PDF, Chinese) → 8 pages · September 2026

ReferencesSources

Note: terms such as "AI Completeness Tax" and "Epistemic Compression" are coined here to name this report's analytical framework; they are not original terms from the public statements cited above.

AI 最大的问题可能不是“不会做”,而是“太会做、太会说”。

当生成成本趋近于零,真正稀缺的资源将变成:判断、验证、理解与压缩。

声明:本文基于近期 Agent 工作实践与数学界关于 AI 的公开讨论整理,为个人观点,不代表任何组织的立场。

执行摘要生成变得便宜,验证、理解与判断没有

生成式 AI 与 Agent 正在把知识工作的“产出带宽”推向一个过去难以想象的水平。代码、分析、报告、研究线索、方案和文档可以被低成本、并行、持续地产生。但组织并没有因此自动获得同等比例的生产力提升,因为人类的验收、理解、判断和沟通带宽并没有同步扩张。

这带来两个相互连接的核心问题。第一是“验收瓶颈”:机器的生成速度超过人类验证速度,形成不断扩大的 review queue。第二是“完备性税”:AI 天然擅长给出结构完整、覆盖全面、语言精致的输出,但这些额外内容会增加阅读、筛选、验证和错误自信的成本。文档越来越漂亮,不等于认知越来越清晰。

2026 年 9 月 11 日,陶哲轩等 25 位菲尔兹奖得主发布《A Severe Misalignment of AI in Mathematics》。他们指出,解出著名问题只是通往“概念理解与洞见”的工具和代理指标;如果 AI 以越来越快的速度批量产生结论,而缺乏整理、方法抽离、归因和人类传承,工具就可能反过来侵蚀原本的目标。[1][2] 这与 Agent 工作中的问题具有同构性:任务完成数只是“有用工作”的代理指标,而不是最终目标。

本报告主张:Agent 时代的核心稀缺性正在从 Generation 转向 Verification、Understanding、Judgment 与 Compression。真正高价值的人类工作,不再是继续补全,而是主动删减;不是复述模型“能说什么”,而是明确“我相信什么、为什么、哪里不确定、下一步做什么”。

四个核心判断

01
生成不再稀缺
AI 可以快速产生大量“看起来完成”的工作,产出本身不再是可靠的价值信号。
02
验收成为瓶颈
如果每份 AI 产出仍依赖人类逐项阅读与确认,系统吞吐最终受限于人,而不是 Agent。
03
完备性产生负担
内容越完整,并不一定越有用;低成本扩写会制造信息通胀、错误理解和组织认知负债。
04
人类价值转向压缩
高价值工作是选择、删减、排序、承担判断,并把复杂性压缩为可执行、可负责的结论。

一 · 范式变化从“缺少产出”到“产出过剩”

传统知识工作的默认前提是:产生一份高质量结果很贵。写一份二十页报告、完成一个复杂 PR、做一次完整调研,需要显著的人力时间,因此“是否值得产出”本身构成天然过滤器。

Agent 改变了这个成本结构。生成成本持续下降,并行度持续上升。一个人可以同时委派多个 Agent 生成代码、分析、调研、方案和文档。于是组织首先得到的不是“知识短缺被消除”,而是“候选输出激增”。

关键不对称是:生产成本快速下降,而消费成本没有同步下降。模型可以在数分钟内生成一份长报告,但读者理解、校验、形成判断仍然需要真实的人类注意力。

Generation Throughput ≫ Human Verification / Comprehension Throughput

这意味着 Agent 系统的实际吞吐不应只看“完成了多少任务”,而要看这些任务有多少能以可接受的人类成本被信任、理解并转化为行动。一个更接近真实生产力的指标是:

Human Verification Cost per Successful Task

如果 Agent 把任务成功率从 90% 提升到 95%,却让每个结果的人工验收从 30 秒变成 20 分钟,组织生产力可能反而下降。

二 · 验收瓶颈真正缺的往往不是 Agent,而是 Verifier

当 Agent 的执行能力不断增强,人类从“亲自做事的人”逐渐转变为“验收人、决策人和责任承担者”。这个角色变化会把组织的主要瓶颈迁移到验证层。

代码场景最直观:Agent 可以一夜提交几十个 PR,但团队第二天无法逐个审阅;研究场景中,Agent 可以生成几百条线索,但专家没有时间逐条核查;管理场景中,AI 可以为每个问题生成完整分析,但负责人真正需要的可能只是一个判断、两个依据和一个风险。

因此,可靠 Agent 系统必须从“输出答案”升级为“输出可验收的证据”。好的交付物不是一句“任务完成”,而是结构化地给出:发生了什么变化、哪些自动测试通过、关键差异在哪里、哪些部分仍然不确定、哪些事项必须由人决定。

一个更合理的验收栈

  1. Agent 生成结果 generate
  2. Verifier Agent 交叉检查 cross-check
  3. 自动化测试 / 约束 / 基线差异 automate
  4. 风险分级与证据压缩 compress
  5. 人类只处理高风险、高不确定、高价值事项 human

这里最重要的设计原则,是把人类从“逐项检查输出”转移到“检查不变量、证据和异常”。验证过程必须尽可能程序化,否则 Agent 越强,人类 backlog 越大。

三 · 数学界的警告不要把 Proxy 当成 Goal

2026 年 9 月 11 日,Terence Tao 等 25 位菲尔兹奖得主发布联名声明《A Severe Misalignment of AI in Mathematics》。声明承认大模型数学能力在最近数月显著跃升,但认为 AI 公司把“解决著名数学问题”作为能力展示和 benchmark,会与数学共同体真正追求的目标发生严重错位。[1]

声明强调,著名问题长期以来更像数学版图上的“地标”:解决它们之所以重要,是因为通常伴随新的洞见、方法和概念,随后还要经过讨论、简化、写作、教学和代际传递,最终才能进入数学共同体的知识体系。[1][2]

他们给出了一句对所有知识工作都极具启发性的判断:解决问题只是实现“概念理解与洞见”的工具和代理指标。若忘记这一点,AI 以更快速度批量产生 true/false 结论,反而可能损伤孕育新思想的土壤。[1][2]

数学界与 Agent 工作的结构同构

层面数学研究Agent 工作
代理指标解出著名问题完成任务 / 生成交付物
真正目标形成理解、方法与新问题产生可用、可信、能支持决策的工作
AI 的优势高速生成证明与结论高速生成代码、报告、方案、分析
新增瓶颈验证、整理、归因、教学验收、理解、压缩、责任承担

这揭示了一个更普遍的问题:当 AI 能直接生成过去只有经过多年训练才能产生的“最终产物”时,我们很容易误以为训练、理解、讨论和形成判断这些中间过程已经不再重要。但这些过程往往恰恰承载着真正的能力积累。

四 · AI 完备性税为什么精致报告反而制造认知负债

在日常工作中,一个越来越常见的现象是:大家都用 AI 生成报告。报告通常结构完整、措辞专业、格式漂亮,看起来“什么都覆盖了”,但很少有人真正愿意读。更危险的是,作者自己也可能因为文档已经足够像样,而高估了自己的理解程度。

这可以称为“AI 完备性税”(AI Completeness Tax):由于模型倾向于补齐背景、定义、风险、案例、建议、总结等所有可能有用的部分,组织必须为这些额外内容支付阅读、筛选、验证和注意力成本。

AI 的完备性并不是恶意冗长,而是目标函数上的自然结果:在不清楚读者真正需要什么时,“覆盖更多”通常比“大胆删除”更安全。但在人类沟通中,价值恰恰来自取舍。

完备性税的四个组成部分

阅读成本
接收者必须处理大量低边际价值文字,注意力被摊薄。
筛选成本
真正重要的判断被埋在“全面覆盖”之中,需要二次压缩。
验证成本
内容越多,需要核验的事实、假设和推理链越多。
错误自信成本
文档的完整与精致,会制造“我已经想清楚”的错觉。
Document Clarity ≠ Mental Clarity
More Tokens ≠ More Information

信息通胀的本质,是“生产一页文字”的边际成本被 AI 大幅压低,但“读懂一页文字”的边际成本没有同步下降。过去,长文档至少隐含作者投入了相当多的筛选和组织成本;现在,长度本身不再携带这种信号。文字因此发生“通胀”,而高密度判断变得更稀缺。

五 · 认知压缩未来人类工作的核心不是补全,而是删减

如果 AI 擅长展开,人类就应该擅长收束。未来高质量知识工作的价值,很可能越来越体现为“有损压缩”:主动丢弃低价值信息,只保留会改变判断、决策和行动的部分。

这里的“压缩”不是传统 summarization。摘要只是把十页变成两页;认知压缩(Epistemic Compression)要求作者承担认识论责任:在全部证据中,我到底相信什么?什么最重要?什么仍然不确定?我愿意基于哪些判断采取行动?

因此,AI 时代最昂贵的一句话,可能不是一篇完整报告,而是“只有第二个问题重要”。这句话背后包含了选择、排除、排序和责任。

一个合格的人类压缩输出,至少应回答四件事:

结论
我认为应该做什么 / 发生了什么。
依据
支撑这个判断的两三个关键事实是什么。
不确定性
哪里可能错,什么信息会改变结论。
行动
下一步由谁做什么,什么需要人类决策。
AI 负责What can be said?
人类负责What do I believe, and what should we do?

六 · 组织机制从“鼓励产出”转向“控制认知熵”

如果继续沿用前 AI 时代的管理习惯——用文档数量、任务完成数、PR 数量、调研覆盖度衡量工作——Agent 会把组织推向“高产出、低理解”的局面。新的组织机制应该主动限制信息熵增。

  1. 默认短,而不是默认全内部沟通优先一页纸、决策摘要或差异报告。详细材料按需展开,而不是默认推给所有人。
  2. Evidence before proseAgent 交付先给证据:测试结果、diff、数据来源、置信度、异常,再给解释性文字。
  3. Review by exception人类重点看失败、冲突、异常和高风险项,不逐项确认所有正常结果。
  4. 强制区分“模型观点”和“我的判断”报告必须明确哪些是 AI 生成的候选分析,哪些是作者筛选后愿意负责的结论。
  5. 为阅读成本定价生成 20 页几乎免费,但要求 10 个人各读 20 分钟,就是 200 分钟组织成本。发出长文档前应把消费成本算进去。
  6. 将压缩作为高级能力评价真正高级的员工不是能让 AI 写更多,而是能把复杂系统压缩成少量正确、可执行、可传递的判断。

七 · 重新定义 AI 生产力不要只统计“做了多少”

Agent 时代需要新的生产力指标。传统指标更接近“产量”;新指标必须把人类注意力、可信度和认知整合成本纳入。可以用一个简单框架理解:

Net Productivity
= Useful Work Created
− Verification Cost
− Reading / Filtering Cost
− Rework Cost
− False-understanding Cost

更值得关注的指标包括:

八 · 结论AI 让执行变便宜,也让判断变昂贵

过去,知识工作的瓶颈主要是“谁能把东西做出来”。Agent 正在快速削弱这个瓶颈。接下来更难的问题是:谁能确认它是对的,谁能理解它为什么对,谁能判断什么重要,谁愿意为最终结论负责。

这就是菲尔兹奖得主联名声明与现实 Agent 工作之间最深的一致:当机器能够直接生产过去被当作“能力证明”的最终产物时,我们必须重新识别那些真正值得保护的目标。数学里不是“更多定理”本身,而是理解、思想和传承;组织里不是“更多文档和任务”本身,而是可信判断、有效沟通和正确行动。

因此,Agent 时代最核心的能力栈可以概括为:

Judgment → Verification → Compression
AI 负责扩展可能性,人类负责收敛现实。

真正成熟的 AI 工作方式,不是让每个人拥有更多输出,而是让组织用更少的认知负担获得更清楚、更可靠、更可执行的判断。

AI 最大的问题可能不是胡说,而是太会说;不是信息不足,而是信息过剩。

未来高质量的人类工作,核心不是继续补全,而是把机器的完备性压缩成我们真正理解、愿意沟通、能够负责的判断。

附录推荐的“一页式人类工作”模板

当 AI 已经提供了大量背景材料后,面向同事、老板或决策者的最终人类输出,可以强制压缩为以下结构:

结论
一句话说清楚你的判断。
依据
最多 3 个真正改变结论的事实或证据。
不确定性
最多 2 个最可能推翻判断的因素。
行动
明确下一步;需要谁决定什么。
附件
AI 长报告、原始数据、完整分析作为按需材料,不占主沟通带宽。

想看原始报告?

下载报告 PDF(中文)→ 8 页 · 2026 年 9 月

参考资料References

说明:本文中的“AI 完备性税”“认知压缩”等术语用于概括本报告提出的分析框架,并非上述公开声明中的原始术语。